By ifeoma Onyekachi

Nigeria’s political climate ahead of the 2027 general elections is beginning to heat up, with fresh opposition claims casting doubt on the re-election prospects of President Bola Tinubu.

A chieftain of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour, has said the president has no realistic pathway to victory in 2027, citing what he described as credible polling data and shifting voter sentiment across key regions.

Rhodes-Vivour, who was the Labour Party governorship candidate in Lagos State in the 2023 election, made the assertion while speaking on Channels Television’s Politics Today on Wednesday, arguing that current political developments reflect growing uncertainty within the ruling establishment.

“I have looked at data, we have polling that is going on now—credible polling—there is no pathway for the president to emerge victorious,” he said.

He particularly pointed to what he described as a significant decline in support in northern Nigeria, a region that played a decisive role in the president’s 2023 electoral success. According to him, the political mood in the North has shifted considerably amid economic hardship and security concerns.

“When you look at the North that gave him 62 per cent of his votes, you see the tsunami that is happening in the North,” Rhodes-Vivour added.

The ADC chieftain also criticised the composition of the current administration, alleging that governance has been concentrated among a narrow circle of allies.

“You have a president that created a government system that is just for the city boys. It is a city boys’ government. It’s not even a proper South-West government; it’s his cronies that are just in charge,” he said.

He further linked ongoing crises within opposition parties, including the ADC, to what he described as deliberate attempts to weaken political alternatives ahead of the next election cycle.

“So, the best pathway is to create an environment where he is the only candidate on the ballot for the presidency. That is what he is trying to achieve, but he is not going to succeed,” he stated.

His comments come amid heightened political tension surrounding the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), particularly following its decision to decline correspondence from rival factions of the ADC after a Court of Appeal ruling on the party’s leadership dispute.

The move has been rejected by sections of the party and criticised by opposition figures, who argue that it raises concerns about interference in internal party affairs.

Earlier this week, prominent opposition leaders, including Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi and Rotimi Amaechi, led a protest at INEC headquarters in Abuja, calling for electoral accountability and institutional neutrality.

The demonstration, which drew hundreds of supporters, underscores growing political mobilisation among opposition groups as the 2027 elections approach, even as analysts say Nigeria’s electoral landscape remains fluid and subject to evolving alliances and voter sentiment.