President Bola Tinubu used his third anniversary address to argue that painful economic reforms introduced since 2023 are beginning to deliver results. But how do the administration’s claims compare with publicly available data and the realities facing Nigerians?

Claim 1: Fuel subsidy removal prevented economic collapse

Tinubu’s claim:
Nigeria was spending up to ₦18.4 billion daily on fuel subsidy payments, with more than ₦4 trillion spent in 2022.

What the data shows:
The Nigerian government did spend heavily on petrol subsidies before Tinubu’s inauguration. Official fiscal reports and NNPC disclosures showed subsidy costs surged following rising global oil prices and exchange-rate pressures.

However, economists remain divided over whether subsidy removal was adequately sequenced with social protection measures. While the policy improved government revenues and reduced fiscal strain, it also triggered a severe cost-of-living crisis due to the immediate jump in fuel prices.

Verdict: Mostly accurate on subsidy burden, but the economic and social trade-offs remain heavily contested.

Claim 2: Forex reforms ended distortions and improved competitiveness

Tinubu’s claim:
Multiple exchange-rate windows and forex arbitrage cost Nigeria more than ₦8 trillion over three years.

What the data shows:
Nigeria’s previous multiple exchange-rate system created major pricing distortions and opportunities for arbitrage. Several financial analysts, multilateral institutions, and private sector groups had long criticised the system.

The naira float introduced under Tinubu narrowed official-market distortions but also led to steep currency depreciation. The naira lost significant value against the dollar after market liberalisation, worsening inflation and import costs.

Foreign investor confidence has shown signs of recovery, but dollar liquidity challenges and exchange-rate volatility persist.

Verdict: Broadly credible on forex distortions, but reforms also intensified inflationary pressure in the short term.

Claim 3: Nigeria’s economy has stabilised

Tinubu’s claim:
Nigeria has stabilised economically and is moving forward again.

What the data shows:
Some macroeconomic indicators have improved:

• Foreign reserves have shown intermittent recovery
• State government revenues increased after subsidy removal
• Stock market performance has strengthened
• Oil production has modestly improved

However:

• Inflation remains historically high
• Food prices continue to strain households
• Real wages have weakened
• Poverty levels remain severe
• Many Nigerians report worsening living conditions

Economic growth has not yet translated into broad relief for households.

Verdict: Partially supported by macroeconomic indicators, but contradicted by persistent household hardship.

Claim 4: Food prices have “largely come down”

Tinubu’s claim:
Food prices have fallen from peak 2023/2024 levels.

What the data shows:
Some staple food inflation has slowed compared with peak surges recorded after subsidy removal and naira depreciation. However, food inflation remains among the biggest economic pressures facing Nigerians.

Prices of rice, beans, cooking oil, bread, and transportation remain significantly above pre-2023 levels in many states.

For most households, affordability remains a major challenge despite signs of slower inflation growth in some sectors.

Verdict: Misleading without broader context. Inflation growth may have slowed, but prices remain extremely high.

Claim 5: Security is improving

Tinubu’s claim:
Communities and highways are becoming safer.

What the data shows:
Security agencies have recorded tactical successes against some armed groups and criminal networks. However, kidnappings, rural attacks, insurgent violence, and killings continue across several parts of the country.

Major concerns remain in parts of the North-West, North-East, and Middle Belt, where communities continue to report insecurity and displacement.

Independent security trackers show violence remains widespread despite ongoing military operations.

Verdict: Partially true, but security improvements remain uneven and fragile.

Claim 6: Infrastructure delivery is accelerating

Tinubu’s claim:
Over 2,700 kilometres of highways and major roads are under construction or rehabilitation.

What the data shows:
The administration has launched or continued several high-profile infrastructure projects, including:

• Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway
• Abuja-Kaduna-Zaria-Kano Road
• Sokoto-Badagry Super Highway
• East-West Road rehabilitation

However, independent verification of completion timelines, funding sustainability, and project delivery rates will be crucial over the next two years.

Some projects remain at early construction stages.

Verdict: Largely accurate on project announcements and ongoing works, though long-term delivery remains uncertain.

The bigger political picture

Tinubu’s speech marks a clear transition from crisis-management rhetoric to political legacy-building.

The administration is increasingly framing hardship as the unavoidable cost of long-term economic correction while asking Nigerians for patience as reforms mature.

But the central political challenge remains whether macroeconomic gains can translate into visible improvements in jobs, food affordability, electricity supply, and security before the next election cycle.

For many Nigerians, the debate is no longer whether reforms were necessary — but whether the burden has been distributed fairly, and how long households can continue absorbing the pain.

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• Previous reports on xenophobic violence in South Africa
• Nigeria–South Africa diplomatic relations
• African migration and security coverage

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