The European Union (EU) has ruled out deploying a full election observation mission to Nigeria for the 2027 general elections, citing the worsening security situation and the alleged hostile treatment of its observers and officials following the 2023 polls.

The decision marks a significant departure from the EU’s longstanding practice of deploying large-scale election observation missions to Nigeria, dating back more than two decades.

The bloc conveyed its position in response to an invitation from the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to observe the 2027 elections.

According to the EU, its decision was based on two major concerns: the deteriorating security situation across the country and what it described as the hostile treatment of its observers and officials after the release of its final report on the 2023 elections.

Instead of the extensive deployment used in previous election cycles, the EU is expected to station only a small team of officials in Abuja to monitor developments and report to Brussels.

Sources familiar with the correspondence said the team could comprise about three officials.

Under the new arrangement, there would be no long-term observers deployed across the states, no short-term observers at polling units on election day and no chief observer, as was the case in previous missions.

INEC had invited the EU to observe the 2027 polls, as it has done ahead of previous general elections since Nigeria’s return to democratic rule in 1999.

The EU observed Nigeria’s elections in 2003, 2007, 2011, 2015, 2019 and 2023. The 2023 mission was described by its Chief Observer, Irish member of the European Parliament Barry Andrews, as the bloc’s seventh election observation mission to Nigeria since 1999.

For the 2023 elections, an 11-member core team arrived in Abuja on January 11, about six weeks before the presidential election. The EU subsequently deployed 40 long-term observers across the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory.

Short-term observers were later added, bringing the total number of accredited observers to 110 from 25 EU member states, as well as Norway, Switzerland and Canada.

A delegation from the European Parliament also participated in the mission, which remained in Nigeria until April 11, weeks after the February 25 presidential and National Assembly elections and the March 18 governorship and state assembly polls.

The EU mission released its final report in June 2023, making 25 recommendations across six priority areas.

The report identified what it described as persistent weaknesses in Nigeria’s electoral system, stating that shortcomings in electoral legislation and administration had affected the conduct of well-run and inclusive elections and undermined public confidence in INEC.

The report generated controversy, with protests held at the EU delegation’s office in Abuja. Protesters accused the bloc of interfering in Nigeria’s internal affairs and demanded the withdrawal of the report.

Some opposition figures and civil society organisations alleged that supporters of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) sponsored the protests. The allegation was denied.

The EU’s decision comes amid persistent insecurity in parts of the North-West, North-East, Middle Belt and South-East, where violence, attacks on electoral infrastructure and sit-at-home orders disrupted the 2023 elections in several areas.

Election observation missions require personnel to travel extensively to polling units, including remote and rural communities, often in challenging security environments. The EU’s latest position is therefore expected to significantly reduce the level of international scrutiny of the 2027 polls.

The National Democratic Institute, International Republican Institute, Commonwealth and African Union have also observed previous Nigerian elections, although stakeholders say none has matched the scale and duration of the EU’s missions.

The EU had committed €39 million in 2022 under the second phase of its Support to Democratic Governance in Nigeria programme, covering the 2022–2027 electoral cycle. A further €13 million was committed specifically to provide technical support to INEC ahead of the 2023 elections.

It remains unclear whether the decision to scale back election observation will have any impact on those broader funding and technical support arrangements.

The development could also influence perceptions of the credibility of the 2027 elections, coming amid concerns over declining public confidence and voter participation.

Voter turnout in the 2023 presidential election stood at about 27 per cent, the lowest recorded since Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999.

Stakeholders have consistently argued that credible international observers provide an additional layer of scrutiny of the electoral process and can help strengthen public confidence in elections.

The 2027 general election is scheduled for February, with INEC already implementing preparations, including continuous voter registration and a review of polling unit distribution.

INEC’s Chief Press Secretary, Oketola Oriye, declined to comment on the development when contacted, saying the information available to him was different from the claims.

The spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Kemiebi Ebiemfa, also declined to comment. Messages sent to her phone were delivered but unanswered as of the time of filing the report.