By Hauwa Gwandu

The Dangote Petroleum Refinery has emerged as the key driver of a dramatic seven-fold increase in Nigeria’s seaborne petroleum product exports since 2023, according to the latest report by the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA).

The EIA said Nigeria’s seaborne petroleum product shipments averaged 561,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the second quarter of 2026, up sharply from an annual average of just 79,000 bpd recorded in 2023.

The surge, the agency said, has strengthened Nigeria’s position in the global refined petroleum products market, with the country increasingly supplying both domestic and international markets.

The EIA attributed much of the growth to the commencement of operations at the Dangote Refinery in January 2024, describing the facility as a major factor behind Nigeria’s transformation from a heavy importer of refined petroleum products to a growing exporter.

Data from energy intelligence firm Vortexa showed that about 350,000 bpd of the 561,000 bpd shipped during the second quarter of 2026 were exported. This compares with an annual export average of just 46,000 bpd in 2023.

“With increased supply of petroleum products from the country’s largest refinery, imports fell, exports increased, and Nigeria became more self-sufficient in refined petroleum products,” the EIA said.

The refinery’s impact has also been reflected in domestic fuel distribution. Intra-Nigerian petroleum product shipments climbed to 211,000 bpd in the second quarter of 2026, up from 81,000 bpd in 2025 and 33,000 bpd in 2023.

The increase followed the expansion of the Dangote facility, with its crude distillation capacity rising from 650,000 bpd to 700,000 bpd after maintenance and expansion work was completed in February 2026.

Before the refinery began operations, Nigeria’s state-owned refineries collectively shipped less than 100,000 bpd of petroleum products, both domestically and internationally.

The growing output from the Dangote refinery has also contributed to a sharp decline in Nigeria’s dependence on imported fuel. According to the EIA, seaborne imports fell from nearly 400,000 bpd in 2023 to below 130,000 bpd in the second quarter of 2026.

Nigeria is also expanding its footprint in international markets. Vortexa data cited by the EIA showed that petroleum product exports to Europe averaged 130,000 bpd in the second quarter of 2026, compared with 40,000 bpd in 2025 and only 15,000 bpd in 2023.

The EIA said supply disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz also contributed to increased demand for alternative sources of refined petroleum products, creating additional opportunities for Nigerian exports.

The development represents a significant shift for Nigeria, which for years relied heavily on imported refined fuel despite being one of Africa’s major crude oil producers.

Meanwhile, Dangote Refinery is already planning another major expansion. The company has announced plans to add 700,000 bpd of additional fully complex refining capacity by the end of 2028, potentially taking its total capacity to about 1.4 million bpd.

Dangote Refinery CEO David Bird said long-lead equipment for the expansion has already been procured, while construction contracts are being awarded.

If completed as planned, the expansion could further increase Nigeria’s refined petroleum output, reduce dependence on imports and strengthen the country’s position as a major supplier of petroleum products to African and global markets.