Nigeria LNG Limited (NLNG) has warned that Nigeria risks losing its position in the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market unless urgent steps are taken to address gas supply constraints and expand processing capacity, revealing that the country’s global market share has slipped from six per cent to five per cent.

Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of NLNG, Mr. Adeleye Falade, raised the alarm during the company’s Facts and Figures Presentation in Lagos, saying Nigeria’s share could decline further to as low as two per cent if investments in gas infrastructure and production are delayed.

“About three to four years ago, NLNG held six per cent of the global LNG market share. Eventually, we’re down to five per cent. There are other countries that are growing. If we don’t do anything, we’ll go down to three per cent. We’ll go down to two per cent.

“But that’s not our dream. Our dream is that we’ll continue to stay relevant even in the global space,” Falade said.

He attributed the decline to Nigeria’s slow pace of expanding LNG processing capacity despite its vast natural gas reserves.

Nigeria has about 215.19 trillion cubic feet (TCF) of proven gas reserves, with an estimated additional 600 TCF yet to be proven, according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC). However, the country’s liquefaction capacity remains at just 22 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) through NLNG’s six-train Bonny Island facility.

Falade contrasted Nigeria’s performance with other major LNG producers, noting that Australia processes about 88 MTPA despite having only about 120 TCF of proven gas reserves, while Malaysia also surpasses Nigeria’s processing capacity with significantly smaller reserves.

“You look at us, over 209 TCF and just 22 MTPA. It became obvious that we needed to be more ambitious about our growth,” he said.

He warned that unless Nigeria accelerates capacity expansion, it stands to lose billions of dollars in export earnings, foreign direct investment and strategic relevance in the global energy market, especially as competitors such as Qatar, Australia and the United States continue to expand production.

Although the global energy transition is reducing dependence on high-carbon fuels, Falade said natural gas would remain a key component of the global energy mix for decades.

“Gas will still be dominant in the energy mix—not just today, not just in 10, 20 or 30 years, but for the next 40 to 50 years. But we can’t assume that window will remain open indefinitely,” he said.

He noted that gas demand continues to grow beyond electricity generation, with increasing applications in fertiliser production, petrochemicals, transportation and manufacturing.

To strengthen Nigeria’s competitiveness, NLNG is expanding its production capacity through the ongoing Train 7 project, which will increase output by 35 per cent from 22 MTPA to 30 MTPA.

Falade also disclosed that preliminary work had begun on Trains 8, 9 and 10 as part of the company’s long-term growth strategy.

“That ambition is why Train 7 is underway, and why NLNG has begun exploratory work on Trains 8, 9 and 10. They are still at an early stage, but discussions have already commenced,” he said.

He, however, identified inadequate feedstock supply as one of the biggest obstacles to expansion.

According to him, the divestment of Shell and Eni from onshore assets has compelled NLNG to diversify its gas supply sources, with about 70 to 75 per cent of its current gas now coming from third-party suppliers rather than shareholder affiliates.

Last year, the company signed Gas Supply Agreements with six independent suppliers and is targeting gas supply contracts equivalent to between 110 and 150 per cent of plant requirements to provide operational flexibility.

Falade stressed that guaranteed gas supply remains a prerequisite for future expansion.

“Train 7 came with dedicated gas supply opportunities. In fact, it’s a condition precedent. If you don’t have a clear line of sight to gas, you won’t take a final investment decision,” he said.

He added that if supply challenges persist, NLNG may eventually consider adopting a vertically integrated business model similar to the approach taken by the Dangote Refinery.

“We’re not yet at that stage, but it’s one of the options on the table,” he said.

Falade also confirmed that the force majeure declared by NLNG in October 2022 following severe flooding that disrupted gas supply to the Bonny Island plant remains in effect.

“It’s still in place. To exit force majeure, you must do so sustainably and demonstrate that the underlying issues have been resolved. As of today, we’re still under force majeure,” he said.

He urged government and industry stakeholders to accelerate upstream gas development, expand pipeline infrastructure and fast-track the commercial and technical frameworks for Trains 8, 9 and 10.

“We have to unleash our gas potential—not only as a company but as a country. The journey has only just begun,” Falade said, adding that the next few years would determine whether Nigeria strengthens its position among the world’s leading LNG exporters or loses further ground to faster-growing competitors.