There is concise indication from my research findings that the voting pattern that characterised the two previous presidential elections across the six geopolitical zones of the country would most likely be significant in shaping the resurgence of voter’s interest in some key states and the electoral outcome of 2019 presidential elections, following several analyses by local and international organisations, of official voting dimensions and figures as obtained from the electoral commission body, in the last 10years.
The set data records have shown that there is going to be a huge paradigm shift in both voter’s turnout and the voting pattern, taking into consideration the level of voter’s empathy, with regards to the two strongest contenders at the up-coming poll, who both come from the Northern states, thus strangely from different geopolitical zones of the country.
Unlike in 1999 presidential elections were the two strong contenders where from the same geopolitical zone, South-West, precisely from Ogun and Ondo states, and at that time they both produced the lowest voter’s turnout and actual votes cast in the zones, in comparison to the rest five zones.
Though history then repeated itself again in 2007, at the presidential pole, the two strong contenders this time around happens to come from, not just the same zone, but equally from the same state, (Katsina), then Gen. Muhammed Buhari, and Musa Yar’Adua, with the zone producing one of the highest voters turnout and number of votes cast, thus there were elements of mistrust and allegations of rigging against the ruling party PDP, but at the end the party flagbearer Musa Yar’ Adua was declared winner with a very huge margin.
Now in 2019, history is about to repeat itself again, in a similar vein as the two main presidential candidates and contenders, are from two zones in the North precisely Adamawa in the (North-East), and Katsina in the (North-West), this time though we are envisaging a 55-45% voters’ variation, in view of the power of persuasive elements and configurations of swerving voters’ patterns across the states in the North-East/West; where the two political gladiators come from, and both being Sunni Muslims, with deep contrast of the royal emirates’ loyalty and support.